ASML Holding N.V.
📈 TradingView Chart
ASML carries a Strong Buy consensus from 15 analysts with a mean price target of $1719.64. The high estimate reaches $2335.62 while the low sits at $884.36. Current price ($1929.25) trades 12% above the mean target, suggesting analysts see near-term overvaluation.
📊 Technical Snapshot
| Indicator | Signal | Value |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | 🟡 Bullish | 67.3 |
| MACD | 🟢 Bullish | +12.230544042990203 |
| Bollinger Bands | 🟡 Neutral | Upper $1982.15 / Mid $1749.41 / Lower $1516.67 |
| SMA (50) | 🟢 Above | $1588.90 |
| SMA (200) | 🟢 Above | $1270.39 |
| OBV | 🟢 Bullish | 🟢 Uptrend |
| ATR (14) | 🟡 Elevated | 5.1% |
| Volume | 🟡 Neutral | Normal |
📈 Multi-Agent Strategy Signals
| Strategy Signal | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 Trend & Momentum | ||
| MA Crossover | 🟡 Neutral | Price vs SMA crossovers — no clear signal. |
| Trend Following | 🟢 Bullish | Higher highs/lows on weekly. |
| Momentum | 🟢 Bullish | RSI, MACD readings — RSI at 65.7. |
| 💰 Valuation & Growth Quality | ||
| P/E Ratio | 🟢 Bullish | Trailing 64.1x / Fwd 40.1x — earnings catching up to price. |
| EPS Growth | 🟢 Bullish | Forward multiple compression narrative intact. |
| Market Position | 🟢 Bullish | ~$743.6B market cap, S&P 500 inclusion catalyst. |
| 📊 Volume & Flow | ||
| OBV Trend | 🟢 Bullish | OBV trending higher, accumulation confirmed. |
| Volume Activity | 🟡 Neutral | Normal volume. |
| Volatility (ATR) | 🔴 Normal | 0.3% daily range — size positions accordingly. |
| 🌐 Market Dynamics | ||
| 52W Position | 🟡 Neutral | 1.5% below 52W high of $1958.00. |
| Sector Rel. Strength | 🟢 Bullish | Sector comparison. |
| Macro Sensitivity | 🟡 Neutral | Monitor macro conditions. |
| 🔧 Technical Patterns | ||
| Bollinger Position | 🟡 Neutral | Price inside bands but near upper. |
| MACD Histogram | 🟢 Bullish | +12.23 — momentum accelerating. |
| MA Alignment | 🟢 Bullish | SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200 — textbook. |
| RSI Regime | 🟡 Neutral | RSI at 65.7, approaching overbought. |
🎲 Game Theory Equilibrium
The multi-agent game model positions ASML within the ai (compute) sector. The equilibrium score reflects network effects from interconnected ecosystem participants.
| Metric | Solo Score | Equilibrium Score | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASML | 0.672 | 0.861 | +0.189 |
Ecosystem force: 63.0% | Signal: bullish | Confidence: medium
Top Influencers:
| Player | Power | Weight | Contribution | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | 0.758 | +0.8 | +0.6064 | us-compute |
| NVDA | 0.872 | +0.5 | +0.4360 | us-compute |
| 005930.KS | 0.690 | +0.5 | +0.3450 | memory |
| AVGO | 0.784 | +0.4 | +0.3136 | us-compute |
| 000660.KS | 0.738 | +0.4 | +0.2952 | memory |
Scenario Probabilities
| Scenario | Probability | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Best Case | 24% | Ecosystem tailwinds accelerate (NVDA scaling, cloud capex surge) — but competitors likely saw it first |
| 🟡 Base Case | 47% | Current equilibrium holds — though our data lags competitors’ |
| 🔴 Worst Case | 29% | Export controls widen or competitor disruption — risk likely understated by public data |
🤖 TimesFM AI Forecast
Google’s TimesFM 2.5 foundation model forecasts the next 10 trading days using price history patterns. This is a zero-shot model — no fine-tuning, no overfitting.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Signal | 🔴 Bearish |
| Trend | ↘️ Bearish (confidence 0%) |
| Forecast Volatility | 13.57% avg daily 80% CI width |
| Model | TimesFM 2.5 (200M params, 16K context) |
| Context Window | 60 trading days |
📊 Forecast Table
| Day | Point Forecast | 80% Lower | 80% Upper | Range ± |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $1923.23 | $1850.56 | $2001.70 | ±$75.57 |
| 2 | $1914.06 | $1822.41 | $2006.36 | ±$91.97 |
| 3 | $1905.32 | $1789.70 | $2012.02 | ±$111.16 |
| 4 | $1887.51 | $1754.59 | $2007.53 | ±$126.47 |
| 5 | $1887.60 | $1754.25 | $2016.07 | ±$130.91 |
| 6 | $1904.69 | $1759.85 | $2039.71 | ±$139.93 |
| 7 | $1894.28 | $1734.87 | $2031.00 | ±$148.07 |
| 8 | $1913.65 | $1748.01 | $2059.76 | ±$155.88 |
| 9 | $1917.44 | $1743.47 | $2066.17 | ±$161.35 |
| 10 | $1910.57 | $1729.06 | $2064.44 | ±$167.69 |
Interpretation: The forecast trend is determined by the slope of the point forecast. The 80% confidence interval captures the model’s uncertainty — narrower bands indicate higher confidence. Anomaly flags trigger when the current price falls outside the model’s expected range, suggesting a potential regime change or news-driven move.
🐋 Smart Money Sentiment / Market Flow
Insider Ownership: 0.01% Institutional Ownership: 19.63% of float Institution Count: 10
Top Institutional Holders
| Holder | Shares | % Out |
|---|---|---|
| Fisher Asset Management, LLC | 4,600,512 | ~1.2% |
| Capital World Investors | 3,733,385 | ~1.0% |
| FMR, LLC | 3,148,406 | ~0.8% |
| State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co | 2,758,173 | ~0.7% |
| JPMORGAN CHASE & CO | 2,131,979 | ~0.6% |
Top 5 concentration: ~4.2% of outstanding shares
Insider Activity (Last 6 Months) No insider filings found in the last 6 months — no SEC Form 4 data returned for ASML.
Data source: yfinance SEC filings (13F) for institutional holdings, Form 4 filings for insider transactions.
Options Market (3 Nearest Expirations)
| Expiration | Call OI | Put OI | P/C OI Ratio | Call Vol | Put Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | 6,826 | 8,316 | 1.22 | 3,157 | 4,761 |
| 2026-07-02 | 1,524 | 4,044 | 2.65 | 556 | 2,356 |
| 2026-07-10 | 1,193 | 2,220 | 1.86 | 376 | 954 |
Data source: yfinance options chains.
Short Interest
- Shares Short: 1,026,452
- Short % of Float: 0.27%
- Days to Cover (Short Ratio): 0.65
- Signal: Low short interest relative to float — limited squeeze potential.
- Month-over-Month: 🔴 Increased 296,350 shares (40.6%)
Bid-Ask Spread: -1.58% (🟡 Tight spread)
Data source: yfinance — short interest reported bi-monthly by exchanges.
About ASML Holding N.V.
HQ: Veldhoven | CEO: Mr. Christophe D. Fouquet | Employees: ~43,882 | Market Cap: ~$743.6B | Revenue: $33.69B
ASML Holding N.V. provides lithography solutions for the development, production, marketing, sales, upgrading, and servicing of advanced semiconductor equipment systems. The company offers lithography, metrology, and inspection systems. It also provides extreme ultraviolet lithography systems; and deep ultraviolet lithography systems comprising immersion and dry lithography systems solutions to manufacture various range of semiconductor nodes and technologies. In addition, the company offers metrology and inspection systems, including YieldStar optical metrology systems, a diffraction-based wafer metrology platform to assess the quality of patterns on the wafers; and HMI electron beam solutions to locate and analyze individual chip defects. Further, it provides computational lithography solutions, and lithography systems and control software solutions; and refurbishes and upgrades lithography systems, as well as offers customer support and related services. Additionally, the company offers hardware, software, and services to chipmakers to produce the patterns of integrated circuits. It operates in Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan, China, rest of Asia, the Netherlands, rest of Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. The company was formerly known as ASM Lithography Holding N.V. and changed its name to ASML Holding N.V. in 2001. ASML Holding N.V. was founded in 1984 and is headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands.
Products & Services
- Custom application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs) for hyperscale AI
- Ethernet solutions (controllers, adapters, switches, transceivers)
- Interconnect products including PAM4 DSPs, silicon photonics, and CPO chipsets
- Storage controllers (HDD, SSD, NVMe, NVMe over Fabrics)
Highlights
- +13% YoY revenue growth
- Market capitalization of ~$743.6B
- Free cash flow of $8.24B
- Beta of 1.40 (high volatility)
- Dividend yield of 46.00%
Future Growth
- Custom AI ASIC programs with multiple hyperscale partners driving design wins
- 1.6T optical interconnect transition on the horizon
- Expanding data center connectivity portfolio
📊 Market Context
| Market Context | 1W | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ── ASML Performance ── | |||||
| ASML | +1.9% | +18.1% | +38.2% | +81.0% | +157.0% |
| SOX | +3.8% | +19.9% | +85.9% | +106.6% | +180.8% |
| ── US Indices ── | |||||
| S&P 500 | -1.1% | -0.0% | +14.0% | +9.2% | +25.2% |
| NASDAQ | -1.9% | -0.7% | +20.2% | +12.6% | +34.6% |
| Dow Jones | +0.1% | +2.2% | +12.1% | +7.6% | +22.5% |
| ── International Semis Markets ── | |||||
| KOSPI (Korea) | +3.0% | +14.5% | +59.3% | +113.2% | +198.1% |
| TAIEX (Taiwan) | +7.7% | +15.7% | +38.5% | +60.4% | +107.8% |
| ── Crypto & Commodities ── | |||||
| Bitcoin | -2.2% | -16.6% | -10.0% | -27.7% | -39.2% |
| Gold | -2.7% | -6.9% | -4.3% | -2.7% | +25.0% |
| WTI Crude | -8.3% | -23.3% | -19.8% | +29.0% | -1.2% |
📰 News Summary
1. Why I’m Not Selling ASML After a 230% Gain Jun 22, 2026
The Dutch lithography leader remains a strong long-term investment. Source: Motley Fool 📎 Read more →
2. Got $2,000? 1 Tech Infrastructure Monopoly to Buy and Hold for the Rest of Your Life Jun 22, 2026
For an investor in their 50s or 60s who wants one technology holding that does not require monitoring, ASML Holding (NASDAQ:ASML) warrants long-term research attention because it is the only company on earth that manufactures the lithography machines required to print advanced chips, and that str… Source: 24/7 Wall St. 📎 Read more →
3. European Stocks Close Mostly Higher in Monday Trading; Investors Indicate Optimism Over Middle East Peace Deal Jun 22, 2026
The European stock markets closed mostly higher in Monday trading as investors reacted to claims fro Source: MT Newswires 📎 Read more →
4. This Megacap Chip Stock Has Added Nearly $331B To Its Market Cap This Year Why BofA Sees A Further Upside Of 22%** — Jun 22, 2026
On Monday, analysts at BofA raised their price target for ASML to $2,345 from $2,268, while maintaining a ‘Buy’ rating. Source: Stocktwits 📎 Read more →
5. Update: ASML Says It Has Not Shipped EUV Chipmaking Tools to China After US Concerns Jun 22, 2026
(Updates with the company’s statement from the third paragraph and the latest stock move in the last Source: MT Newswires 📎 Read more → Key Takeaway: Multi-source coverage highlights the catalysts driving Yahoo, Motley Fool.
(Sources: Motley Fool)
📚 Sources
| Source | Data Used |
|---|---|
| Yahoo Finance (ASML) | Stock price, financials, market cap, volume, bid-ask spread |
| Yahoo Finance Key Statistics | P/E ratios, EPS, short interest, shares outstanding |
| SEC EDGAR | Insider transactions (Form 4), institutional holdings (13F) |
| Yahoo Finance Options | Options chain — open interest, volume, put/call ratios |
| Finviz (ASML) | Analyst consensus, price targets, technical indicators |
| TradingView (ASML) | Interactive chart, historical price data |
| DeepSeek LLM | News summarization and multi-agent strategy analysis |
All data is for informational purposes only. Verify independently before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or trading advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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