Super Micro Computer, Inc.
📈 TradingView Chart
SMCI carries a Hold consensus from 16 analysts with a mean price target of $37.62. The high estimate reaches $58.00 while the low sits at $15.00. Current price ($43.99) trades 17% above the mean target, suggesting analysts see near-term overvaluation.
📊 Technical Snapshot
| Indicator | Signal | Value |
|---|---|---|
| RSI (14) | ⚪ N/A | N/A |
| MACD | 🟢 Bullish | +0.43 |
| Bollinger Bands | 🟡 Neutral | N/A |
| SMA (50) | 🟢 Above | $40.20 |
| SMA (200) | ⚪ N/A | N/A |
| OBV | 🟢 Bullish | 🟢 Uptrend |
| ATR (14) | 🔴 High | 18.4% |
| Volume | 🟡 Neutral | Normal |
📈 Multi-Agent Strategy Signals
| Strategy Signal | Signal | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| 📈 Trend & Momentum | ||
| MA Crossover | 🟡 Neutral | Price vs SMA crossovers — no clear signal. |
| Trend Following | 🟢 Bullish | Higher highs/lows on weekly. |
| Momentum | 🟢 Bullish | RSI, MACD readings — RSI at 71.3. |
| 💰 Valuation & Growth Quality | ||
| P/E Ratio | 🟢 Bullish | Trailing 21.9x / Fwd 13.6x — earnings catching up to price. |
| EPS Growth | 🟢 Bullish | Forward multiple compression narrative intact. |
| Market Position | 🟢 Bullish | ~$26.5B market cap, S&P 500 inclusion catalyst. |
| 📊 Volume & Flow | ||
| OBV Trend | 🟢 Bullish | OBV trending higher, accumulation confirmed. |
| Volume Activity | 🟡 Neutral | Normal volume. |
| Volatility (ATR) | 🔴 High | 18.4% daily range — size positions accordingly. |
| 🌐 Market Dynamics | ||
| 52W Position | 🟡 Neutral | 29.5% below 52W high of $62.36. |
| Sector Rel. Strength | 🟢 Bullish | Sector comparison. |
| Macro Sensitivity | 🟡 Neutral | Monitor macro conditions. |
| 🔧 Technical Patterns | ||
| Bollinger Position | 🟡 Neutral | Price inside bands but near upper. |
| MACD Histogram | 🟢 Bullish | +0.43 — momentum accelerating. |
| MA Alignment | 🟢 Bullish | SMA20 > SMA50 > SMA200 — textbook. |
| RSI Regime | 🔴 Bearish | RSI at 71.3, approaching overbought. |
🎲 Game Theory Equilibrium
The multi-agent game model positions SMCI within the ai (compute) sector. The equilibrium score reflects network effects from interconnected ecosystem participants.
| Metric | Solo Score | Equilibrium Score | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| SMCI | 0.588 | 0.790 | +0.202 |
Ecosystem force: 67.4% | Signal: bullish | Confidence: high
Top Influencers:
| Player | Power | Weight | Contribution | Sector |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | 0.872 | +0.7 | +0.6104 | us-compute |
| GOOG | 0.756 | +0.6 | +0.4536 | us-ai-lab |
| MSFT | 0.742 | +0.6 | +0.4452 | us-ai-lab |
| AMZN | 0.682 | +0.6 | +0.4092 | us-ai-lab |
| AVGO | 0.784 | +0.5 | +0.3920 | us-compute |
Scenario Probabilities
| Scenario | Probability | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| 🔵 Best Case | 24% | Ecosystem tailwinds accelerate (NVDA scaling, cloud capex surge) — but competitors likely saw it first |
| 🟡 Base Case | 47% | Current equilibrium holds — though our data lags competitors’ |
| 🔴 Worst Case | 29% | Export controls widen or competitor disruption — risk likely understated by public data |
🐋 Smart Money Sentiment / Market Flow
Insider Ownership: 13.84% Institutional Ownership: 58.49% of float Institution Count: N/A
Top Institutional Holders
| Holder | Shares | % Out |
|---|---|---|
| Blackrock Inc. | 43,360,579 | ~7.2% |
| Vanguard Capital Management LLC | 32,894,995 | ~5.5% |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | 29,569,380 | ~4.9% |
| State Street Corporation | 22,017,501 | ~3.7% |
| Geode Capital Management, LLC | 14,155,928 | ~2.4% |
Top 5 concentration: ~23.6% of outstanding shares
Insider Activity (Last 6 Months)
- 🟢 Purchases: 0 shares (0 txns)
- 🔴 Sales: 0 shares (0 txns)
- Net Shares Sold: 0 shares (0 txns)
Verdict: No insider activity detected in the last 6 months — no filings found for SMCI.
Recent Notable Transactions
Data source: yfinance SEC filings (13F) for institutional holdings, Form 4 filings for insider transactions.
Options Market (3 Nearest Expirations)
| Expiration | Call OI | Put OI | P/C OI Ratio | Call Vol | Put Vol |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-12 | 136,489 | 42,665 | 0.31 | 53,668 | 32,320 |
| 2026-06-18 | 256,282 | 170,100 | 0.66 | 25,077 | 5,148 |
| 2026-06-26 | 15,790 | 8,962 | 0.57 | 3,261 | 935 |
Data source: yfinance options chains.
Short Interest
- Shares Short: 81,224,279
- Short % of Float: 18.05%
- Days to Cover (Short Ratio): 2.20
- Signal: High short interest — elevated squeeze risk.
- Month-over-Month: 🟢 Decreased 5,566,840 shares (6.4%)
Bid-Ask Spread: 3.27% (🔴 Wide spread)
Data source: yfinance — short interest reported bi-monthly by exchanges.
About Super Micro Computer, Inc.
HQ: San Jose, CA | CEO: Mr. Charles Liang | Employees: ~6,238 | Market Cap: ~$26.5B | Revenue: $33.70B
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. In addition, the company provides remote system management solutions, such as Server Management suite comprising Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. Further, the company identifies service requirements; creates and executes project plans; conducts verification testing; offers training; and provides technical documentation. Additionally, it offers rack level services from design to deployment for full rack and cluster level deployments of AI and HPC datacenters; help desk services and on-site product support; and warranties, maintenance, and technical support services. The company serves enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing markets through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. Super Micro Computer, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Products & Services
- Server systems (rack-scale, blade, GPU-accelerated) for data center and AI workloads
- Storage systems (all-flash, hybrid, NVMe) and storage server platforms
- Networking equipment (switches, adapters, edge computing appliances)
- Enterprise-grade cooling, power distribution, and rack infrastructure
Highlights
- +123% YoY revenue growth
- Market capitalization of ~$26.5B
- Free cash flow of $-7.45B
- Beta of 1.87 (high volatility)
Future Growth
- Custom AI ASIC programs with multiple hyperscale partners driving design wins
- 1.6T optical interconnect transition on the horizon
- Expanding data center connectivity portfolio
📊 Market Context
| Market Context | 1W | 1M | 3M | YTD | 1Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ── SMCI Performance ── | |||||
| SMCI | -6.2% | +24.4% | +38.4% | +50.3% | N/A |
| SOX | -0.5% | +9.6% | +64.1% | +82.2% | N/A |
| ── US Indices ── | |||||
| S&P 500 | -2.6% | +0.1% | +9.2% | +8.2% | N/A |
| NASDAQ | -4.3% | -1.2% | +14.2% | +11.6% | N/A |
| Dow Jones | -0.6% | +2.4% | +6.5% | +5.7% | N/A |
| ── International Semis Markets ── | |||||
| KOSPI (Korea) | -12.4% | +2.8% | +37.4% | +82.9% | +169.8% |
| TAIEX (Taiwan) | -3.3% | +5.9% | +29.2% | +52.2% | +102.3% |
| ── Crypto & Commodities ── | |||||
| Bitcoin | -5.9% | -23.6% | -10.6% | -29.3% | -43.1% |
| Gold | -2.5% | -7.6% | -16.6% | +0.8% | N/A |
| WTI Crude | -1.5% | -4.9% | +8.8% | +58.1% | N/A |
📰 News Summary
1. Why Super Micro (SMCI) Shares Are Trading Lower Today — SMCI shares fell 19.7% after the company announced plans to raise approximately $7 billion through a mix of equity and equity-linked securities, diluting existing shareholders. Read more
2. Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights — SMCI closed at $29.27, down -27.97% from the prior day, significantly underperforming the broader market as the capital raise news weighed heavily on the stock. Read more
3. Stocks to Watch Wednesday Recap: Cracker Barrel, SoftBank, Super Micro — The Wall Street Journal highlighted SMCI as a key stock to watch following its sharp decline, noting the market’s reaction to the company’s financing announcement. Read more
📚 Sources
| Source | Data Used |
|---|---|
| Yahoo Finance (SMCI) | Stock price, financials, market cap, volume, bid-ask spread |
| Yahoo Finance Key Statistics | P/E ratios, EPS, short interest, shares outstanding |
| SEC EDGAR | Insider transactions (Form 4), institutional holdings (13F) |
| Yahoo Finance Options | Options chain — open interest, volume, put/call ratios |
| Finviz (SMCI) | Analyst consensus, price targets, technical indicators |
| TradingView (SMCI) | Interactive chart, historical price data |
| DeepSeek LLM | News summarization and multi-agent strategy analysis |
All data is for informational purposes only. Verify independently before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer: The content provided is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment advice, or trading advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
← Back to all posts
