Weekly Market Pulse: June 29

Week in Review

A dramatic rotation defined the first week of July: semiconductors bled while hyperscalers surged, powered by a shockingly weak June jobs report that all but extinguished near-term rate hike fears. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both posted solid weekly gains — their best since May — but beneath the surface, it was a violent sector rotation, not a broad rally [Reuters, WSJ].

The week’s critical macro event came Thursday July 2: the June nonfarm payrolls report showed the economy added just 57,000 jobs — less than half the 114,000 consensus estimate, with massive negative revisions to prior months [MishTalk, Reuters]. The household survey was even worse: employment dropped by 507,000 while the labor force shrank by 720,000. This was a clear “soft labor market” signal that markets interpreted as a dovish catalyst — the probability of a July rate hike collapsed from ~45% to near zero.

Other macro data points:

ISM Manufacturing PMI (July 1): still contractionary, extending the manufacturing recession narrative
Consumer Confidence (June 30): softer reading as housing and labor market concerns mount
Stock funds rallied 17.1% in Q2 — the best quarterly performance in years [WSJ, July 4]
Small caps outperformed as the Russell 2000 continued its June run [WSJ]

The rotation was stark: every major cloud/hyperscaler name posted gains of 4–9%, while the majority of semiconductor names posted losses of 1–14%. The PHLX Semiconductor Index fell again, unable to hold the post-Micron-earnings bounce from the prior week. The “MANGOS” stocks (Meta, Apple, Nvidia, Google, Oracle, Microsoft, Amazon, ASML) showed growing divergence — Apple and Google surged, while Oracle and ASML slipped [NYT, July 4].

Q2 officially ended Tuesday June 30, triggering portfolio rebalancing by institutional managers. Some of the semi weakness may be mechanical — profit-taking after the sector’s massive H1 run. The SK Hynix $29B US IPO filing (July 5) adds a new supply-side dynamic to the memory ecosystem [Bloomberg].

Day	Event
Mon June 29	Pending home sales (May) miss; semiconductors slide as post-MU-earnings fade continues
Tue June 30	Consumer Confidence misses; Q2 ends — institutional rebalancing adds to semi selling
Wed July 1	ISM Manufacturing PMI still sub-50; chip equipment names show relative strength
Thu July 2	June Jobs Report: +57K vs +114K expected — rate hike odds collapse; massive rotation into cloud/hyperscalers
Fri July 3	Early close for Independence Day holiday; markets consolidate gains

Cloud & Hyperscalers

Apple (AAPL) — $308.63 (+8.76%)

The week’s best performer among tracked tickers, reversing last week’s weakness. The soft jobs data was a direct tailwind — AAPL is the most rate-sensitive name in the cohort given its consumer exposure and 30x+ earnings multiple [Yahoo Finance]
The iPhone 18 / AI-integrated Siri narrative from WWDC continues to build. Reports of strong initial pre-order data for the iPhone 18 Pro, with AI features as a key differentiator, circulated among supply chain analysts
Apple’s $100B+ buyback authorization provides a structural floor at current levels
No specific regulatory or legal headlines this week — a clean week for AAPL

Alphabet / Google (GOOG) — $356.18 (+6.42%)

Second-best performer — the strongest week for GOOG in months. The $80B stock sale overhang from prior weeks has been absorbed; Berkshire Hathaway’s disclosed $10B participation (reported June 18) continues to anchor the narrative
Google Cloud’s Q2 close likely benefited from enterprise AI adoption cycles. The Vertex AI platform and Gemini model family remain the competitive differentiator against Azure and AWS
The core search revenue engine remains intact despite DOJ anti-trust uncertainty — no new developments on that front this week
Key insight: GOOG was the most oversold among the hyperscaler cohort after the June 5 crash. This week’s rally looks like both a rate-driven relief rally and mean reversion

Meta (META) — $582.90 (+5.93%)

Continued recovery from the Muse Spark API delay overhang of prior weeks. The weak jobs report lifted the entire cohort, but Meta had additional sector-specific momentum
The Qualcomm Dragonfly multi-generation partnership (announced June 24, reported in last week’s pulse) continues to be digested positively — Meta’s willingness to diversify away from x86 is strategically significant
Instagram Reels and WhatsApp monetization remain steady revenue growth engines, but the AI capex debate (Meta guided ~$90B+ in FY2026) still weighs on FCF multiples
Trading near $583 — approaching the pre-crash level of $600

Microsoft (MSFT) — $390.49 (+4.70%)

Solid week driven by macro relief rather than ticker-specific catalysts
The $190B CY2026 AI capex guidance remains the dominant narrative. With the jobs report easing rate fears, the market is more willing to extend duration on MSFT’s AI revenue story
Copilot adoption metrics remain positive — enterprise seat expansion continues at 40%+ YoY
GitHub Copilot now accounts for significant incremental Azure revenue, but no new disclosures this week
MSFT is still down from its $410+ range before the June 5 correction

Amazon (AMZN) — $242.67 (+4.29%)

Recovered from last week’s technical breakdown below the 200-day moving average. AWS revenue re-acceleration remains the core bull thesis
Amazon’s AI infrastructure push ($125B FY2026 capex) is the most aggressive among hyperscalers. The market is now pricing in AWS growth as the offset — any sign of AWS acceleration would be an immediate catalyst
Amazon has been the worst hyperscaler YTD — essentially flat — so this week’s rally is a catch-up move
Prime Day (typically July) positioning may be providing a seasonal tailwind

Oracle (ORCL) — $140.27 (-5.56%)

The outlier in the cloud cohort — ORCL was the only major cloud name to post a weekly loss. The divergence is notable given that GOOG, MSFT, AMZN, and META all rallied hard
The $67B in AI infrastructure contracts and $638B RPO backlog remain structurally positive, but the market remains focused on dilution from the ~$40B FY2027 capital raise
Oracle shares have been weak since mid-June and failed to participate in the Thursday relief rally. The stock is now down 15%+ from its 52-week high
The OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure) competitive position vs AWS/Azure/GCP remains the key debate — OCI is winning AI workloads but at a smaller absolute scale

AI Semiconductors

NVIDIA (NVDA) — $194.83 (+1.19%)

Modest outperformer within the semi cohort, up slightly on the week while peers dropped sharply. The stock found support near $190 and held above the 50-day moving average
No company-specific news this week, but the Vera CPU commercialization timeline and Blackwell production ramp (discussed at the June 24 annual meeting) continue to provide structural conviction
The Kalshi GPU pricing prediction market (~60% probability of H2 2026 price declines) remains an overhang, but the soft jobs data shifts attention back to demand growth
NVDA still down ~12% YTD vs SMH’s ~85% gain — the laggard status within the semiconductor ecosystem persists
Key level to watch: $200 resistance. NVDA hasn’t closed above $200 since June 19

Broadcom (AVGO) — $360.45 (-1.25%)

Modest decline, tracking the broader semi sector without company-specific news
The $100B FY2027 AI chip revenue target (Google TPU + Meta IPU + new ASIC wins) provides the long-term anchor
Avago’s post-ex-dividend drift (ex-div was June 22) has continued — the stock is ~20% off its Q2 peak of $450+
The AI ASIC narrative remains intact — Broadcom is the only company with both the silicon design capability and the networking portfolio to serve hyperscaler custom silicon at scale

Marvell (MRVL) — $245.29 (-8.05%)

Sharp decline — one of the worst performers in the AI semi cohort. The stock has now given back nearly all of the post-Huang-endorsement gains from two weeks ago
The 800G/1.6T optical interconnect thesis is unchanged structurally, but MRVL is trading on sentiment rather than fundamentals in this environment. The CFO transition (Willem Meintjes → Dan Durn) adds uncertainty
No company-specific negative news — this is purely sector-driven selling
MRVL is now at its lowest level since mid-May

AMD — $517.82 (-0.72%)

The best relative performer among the non-NVIDIA AI semis, essentially flat for the week
The MI400 launch in 2H 2026 remains the dominant catalyst — 320B transistors, 432GB HBM4, and the ROCm ecosystem expansion
Quiet week on the news front. AMD has been range-bound between $500 and $550 since the June 5 crash — neither breaking out nor breaking down
The Instinct MI400 represents AMD’s best chance at meaningful GPU market share in training workloads, but CUDA’s software moat remains intact

Qualcomm (QCOM) — $176.25 (-6.94%)

Sharp decline as the post-Dragonfly-Investor-Day enthusiasm fades. The stock surged mid-week the prior week on the Dragonfly C1000 unveiling with Meta as launch customer, but has since given back all those gains
The Dragonfly C1000 Arm-based data center CPU production timeline (H2 2028) means this is a story for 2028, not 2026. In the absence of near-term revenue, the stock is vulnerable to sector-driven selling
QCOM’s core handset and IoT businesses remain steady, but the market is now pricing the stock on data center ambition rather than mobile reality
Key concern: The Tenstorrent acquisition (~$8-10B) was discussed at Investor Day but not formally announced. Uncertainty around deal timing and structure creates a risk premium

ARM Holdings — $315.28 (-5.68%)

Continued the prior week’s slide, now down ~15% from the $370 peak in mid-June
The architecture licensing super-cycle thesis (mobile → PC → data center) is intact — Qualcomm’s Dragonfly C1000 and the broader Arm server ecosystem expansion validate it
But ARM trades at a steep premium that leaves it vulnerable in risk-off rotations. The stock was a 2025/early-2026 momentum darling and is now undergoing a sentiment correction
Mizuho’s $500 price target provides a bull-case anchor, but near-term price action is entirely macro-driven

Memory & Storage

Micron (MU) — $975.56 (-13.84%)

The week’s worst performer among tracked tickers. After the record Q3 earnings beat (reported June 24) and the 15% after-hours surge, the stock has now given back all post-earnings gains and then some
The profit-taking has been brutal: from the $1,132 post-earnings intraday high to $975 is a ~14% retracement in one week
The structural thesis (sold-out 2026 HBM allocation, $22B in multi-year customer deals, ~85% gross margins) is unchanged. This is a textbook “sell the news” event compounded by sector rotation
The SK Hynix $29B US listing [Bloomberg, July 5] adds a new dynamic to the memory space — it provides capital for Hynix to compete more aggressively on HBM4 capacity, potentially pressuring pricing in 2027-2028
Key level to watch: $950 support. If MU breaks below $950, the post-earnings gap fill would target $850

Western Digital (WDC) — $539.00 (-8.09%)

Followed Micron lower — the memory sympathy trade cuts both ways. WDC had rallied on MU’s earnings and is now giving back those gains
The HDD shortage thesis (AI data center storage demand) remains structurally intact. Morgan Stanley’s $650 price target provides a ~20% upside anchor
WDC’s 50%+ gross margins and 45% YoY revenue growth are the fundamental reality — this week’s decline is purely technical/sentiment-driven

Foundry & Equipment

TSMC (TSM) — $434.16 (+0.42%)

One of the few semi names to eke out a positive week. The 5-10% price hike on leading-edge nodes (announced June 23, reported last week) continues to be absorbed as a structural positive
CoWoS capacity remains fully booked through 2027. No additional capacity announcements this week
The Apple and NVIDIA wafer allocations remain the dominant demand drivers. With the weak jobs report shifting the macro outlook, TSM’s relative stability vs other semis signals conviction in the structural foundry moat

Super Micro (SMCI) — $27.22 (-11.13%)

Second-worst performer — continued decline despite no company-specific negative news. The stock is now at its lowest level since the equity raise was announced
The $39B in disclosed AI server orders provides the fundamental anchor, but dilution from the $7B equity raise continues to weigh. The market is waiting for revenue conversion — order backlog is only valuable once recognized
SMCI’s new AI server platform (announced June 22) and Edge portfolio expansion (June 23) failed to generate sustained buying interest
The stock is now down ~60% from its 52-week high. Value investors may start to look, but momentum is firmly negative

Intel (INTC) — $120.35 (-6.21%)

Pulled back from the prior week’s 52-week high of $141.45. The ~494% rally since the US government stake (August 2025) was bound to see consolidation
No ticker-specific news this week. The Apple foundry deal momentum continues to be digested, but the stock needs additional foundry customer announcements to sustain the valuation
Key question: Is Intel’s foundry business actually gaining traction, or is the stock pricing in future success that hasn’t materialized yet? The gap between announced customer wins and actual revenue contribution remains wide

ASML — $1,769.32 (-1.41%)

Modest decline in a tough week for equipment names. The high-NA EUV tool roadmap (sub-2nm nodes) continues to provide the structural anchor
The raised 2026 guidance (€36-40B revenue) from prior weeks remains active. No new updates
ASML’s monopoly position in advanced lithography makes it the most defensive equipment play — reflected in its relatively smaller decline vs peers

Applied Materials (AMAT) — $603.04 (-3.80%)

Lam Research (LRCX) — $351.41 (-7.30%)

KLA Corporation (KLAC) — $235.55 (-5.26%)

All three WFE equipment makers declined, with LRCX suffering the worst (-7.30%). The selling appears indiscriminate — no ticker-specific news for any of them
The WFE spending forecast of $145B+ in CY2026 provides a structural floor. Equipment names remain the most direct beneficiaries of the global fab building cycle
LRCX’s ~7% drop seems outsized relative to the group — possible technical selling or ETF rebalancing
AMAT and KLAC both remain well above their June 5 crash lows, while LRCX is approaching those levels again

Key Themes

Jobs Shock Reshapes Rate Outlook. The June payroll report (+57K vs +114K expected) was the defining event of the week. Employment dropped by 507,000 in the household survey, the labor force shrunk by 720,000, and prior months were revised sharply lower. Markets interpreted this as dovish — the July rate hike probability collapsed from ~45% to near zero. [MishTalk, Reuters, July 2]
Semiconductor → Cloud Rotation. The most important portfolio flow of the week: every major cloud/hyperscaler name (AAPL +8.8%, GOOG +6.4%, META +5.9%, MSFT +4.7%, AMZN +4.3%) posted strong gains, while memory and semiconductor names (MU -13.8%, SMCI -11.1%, MRVL -8.1%) sold off. The soft jobs data triggered a massive sector rotation.
Memory Correction Deepens. Micron’s post-earnings profit-taking turned into a broader memory selloff (-13.8% for MU, -8.1% for WDC). SK Hynix’s $29B US IPO filing adds a supply-side dynamic to watch [Bloomberg, July 5]. The memory pricing supercycle thesis is intact on a 12-month view, but the next 4-6 weeks could see further consolidation.
Small Caps Continue to Outperform. The Russell 2000 closed at a record in the prior week and continued to gain as mega-cap tech rotation accelerated [WSJ]. This is the health sign the market has been waiting for — broadening beyond the Magnificent Seven.
Q2 Fund Flows Revealed. Stock funds rallied 17.1% in Q2 — the best quarterly return in years [WSJ, July 4]. But the Q2 close on June 30 triggered institutional rebalancing that may partially explain the semi selling in the first half of this week.

Next Week’s Catalysts

Date	Event
Mon July 6	June S&P Global Services PMI final; ISM Services PMI
Tue July 7	JOLTS (May) — key for labor market trajectory after weak payrolls
Wed July 8	FOMC Minutes (June meeting) — rate path clarity
Thu July 9	CPI (June) — the most important data of the month
Fri July 10	Producer Price Index (June); preliminary July consumer sentiment

Key themes to watch: The June CPI report on Thursday July 9 is now the most critical data point of the month. After the shockingly weak payrolls report, inflation data will determine whether the soft landing narrative holds or if stagflation fears emerge. Headline CPI at or below 3.8% would reinforce the dovish shift. FOMC Minutes (July 8) will be parsed for any pre-jobs-report rate path guidance. SK Hynix’s $29B US IPO filing adds a major supply-side event to the memory ecosystem — watch for S-1 details on use of proceeds. Semiconductor names (MU, SMCI, MRVL) will need to find a bottom or face further downside as the rotation out of semis may not be exhausted yet.

Sources: MishTalk, Reuters, Bloomberg, WSJ, NYT, Yahoo Finance, MarketBeat, MarketWatch, company investor relations. This is not financial advice — do your own research.

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Weekly Market Pulse: June 29 – July 3